Strategic Drift or Strategic Choice? Australia at the Crossroads.

Dangerous Dinner

Hosted by Prof Barbara van Ernst AM & Deborah Remfry

In 2025, Australia finds itself confronting the most consequential defence and foreign policy choices since the Second World War. As the AUKUS submarine deal comes under review in Washington and the global order tilts further toward Asia, we must ask ourselves several questions, including: what threats (and opportunities) are we actually contending with and what are our options to deal with them? Who are our long-term friends and allies in a rapidly changing world - and who do we want them to be?

What frameworks should guide our choices about strategic and trade alliances in this moment of upheaval? Is AUKUS a prudent investment in security or an anchor to two fading empires? Can NATO continue to be relied upon, or should we lean into this security structure, strengthening the hand of European nations? Should Australia cling to the fading Pax Americana - or begin moving closer to other rising powers, including China or India? What happens to our economic resilience when our diplomacy and defence posture is shaped by inherited loyalties? And what kinds of agreements - military, diplomatic, commercial - can we actually count on over the next several decades?

Come to this Dangerous Dinner prepared to challenge or defend the deep assumptions that have shaped Australia’s foreign, defence and trade policies for decades. This is a rare opportunity for open discussion about Australia’s future place in the world - and the hard choices we may no longer be able to avoid.

Suggested pre-reading: Can Albanese fix Australia's defence?, by Hugh White, The Saturday Paper, 14 June 2025.

Dangerous Dinners give you the opportunity to fearlessly discuss contemporary, challenging and interesting ideas, themes and points of view.

In a relaxed, informal dining environment, we draw on the diverse expertise of our members, sharing their ideas and experiences on complex or controversial topics; to learn from others, challenge assumptions, spark new ideas or point the way for potential actions.

Dangerous because the topics may be difficult to discuss, ask the silent questions, challenge thinking, unpack pressing issues, test emerging trends. Safe because we respect others’ views, it is polite not offensive, under Chatham House rule and listening with the intent to learn.

On a regular basis, you will be able to join your fellow Melbourne Forum members for a robust discussion on a range of themes in dynamic company and over a light meal. The focus is on ‘food for thought’ with shared conversations and shared platters as part of the collegiality.